The American Airlines pilots continue to oppose the sacrifices demanded by their management to get the fourth U.S. airline from bankruptcy. No longer having confidence in Tom Horton, their CEO, they are ready to support a merger with their rivals, U.S. Airways, number five in the American sky.

Recognizing the appeal of this solution could also represent creditors of AMR, the parent company of American Airlines, Tom Horton no longer excludes this possibility. But for now, his priority is to get the bankruptcy court in New York the authority to terminate employment contracts more generous than the norm that bind the company to its professional staff. This is because the same key used last November in Chapter 11 of bankruptcy code by AMR as did a few years ago, Delta and United. Judge Sean Lane must decide no later than June 6. For its part, the direction of AMR should have presented its plan to exit bankruptcy in early September at the latest. The option of a merger with U.S. Airways can then be formally submitted to him.

The pilots of American Airlines operate be willing to accept $ 270 million in savings over six years. AMR's lawyers evaluate their concession to only 11 million. The difference speaks volumes about the bad weather that has prevailed for years between pilots and management. The recovery plan is working on AMR assumes $ 3 billion per year cost reduction. Two-thirds would be achieved by renegotiating debts and rents of AMR and the balance by changing the way the company operates its network. American wants greater use of regional jets that are driven by non-union employees and paid much less.

Revision of labor contracts

For the pilots' union, it would be better to merge with U.S. Airways. The agreement that the union has pre-negotiated with the company in Tempe (Arizona) includes $ 240 million of concessions from them. The union of the cabin crew is on the same wavelength. Other categories of employees, starting with the mechanics, have certainly agreed to revise their contract of employment but they also support a parallel option of a merger with U.S. Airways. She is leading a fleet of 340 aircraft – American Airlines has 617 planes besides 281 regional aircraft in the colors of his company American Eagle. The marriage would create the new number one, facing Delta and United, which dominate the market since their respective merger with Northwest and Continental. Four companies, including Southwest, and would share 90% of traffic. For many analysts, this concentration of actors is a prerequisite to sustainable return profits in the industry. In Q1 2012, the ten largest carriers have still posted $ 1.7 billion loss.

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The happiness of others is felt as an insult when you yourself are in trouble. The relatively strong expansion of the German economy (2% annual rate in the first quarter) in contrast to the recessions of most other major countries (by population), plus Portugal and Greece. As for the zero growth of the Hexagon, it confirms his usual center position, if not congenital ambiguity.

It is no longer "Deutschland über alles", but "alles ohne Deutschland" (Germany without the other), thinks it by reading the 2012 first quarter results released Tuesday by Eurostat. And this singularity is disturbing: it appears that healthy Germanic fail to get out of the rut Euroland.

This justifies the environmental diagnosis of Francois Hollande, advocating a form of stimulus. And already, as the Bundesbank that Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister, admitted that Germany should agree to have more inflation than southern Europe, and higher wage increases.

Will this be enough to call it the euro area growth on orbit? The consumer of Munich can give work back to the outskirts of Lisbon? The question is what he could buy them. And this is where things get complicated.

Historical-cultural syndrome

When we look more closely at the 2012 first quarter GDP in Europe, it is clear that Slovakia (0.8%), Finland (1.3%) and Belgium (0.2%) fared rather well. Only the Netherlands in recession, are missing. We know they are victims of the bursting of their bubble and household debt Batavian. Otherwise, all the satellites of Germany, what some call its subcontractors, this meet. And the map taking shape before our eyes is practically that of the Holy Roman Empire, which brought together the Mitteleuropa of northern Italy to the Baltic, from 962 to 1806. Napoleon until the final unraveling, which earned us the title since then, ironically, the "Grande Nation" across the Rhine.

This geography is often invoked today by eurosceptics in France. They believe that the euro should be limited to the former Holy Roman Empire, which certainly included northern Italy, but which will never France or the Iberian Peninsula. This historical-cultural syndrome keeps his weight when we see, for example, how Mario Monti, a native of Lombardy, is working to convert all Italy to Germanic culture.

Clearly, to benefit the motor industry across the Rhine and its market, the first in Europe, it should share its values ​​management and be competitive. Again, the performance of German foreign trade – the largest surplus in the world, all nations combined – are instructive.

That China has become the main supplier (to the Netherlands, then France) demonstrates the wonderful integration of Germany into globalization and its thirst for the open sea. However, we remain French their first customer, and the Franco-German balance, € 35 billion, accounted for half of our overall deficit in 2011. It is a sacred chasm in the Franco-German couple, so-called engine of Europe. The bad boy can he blame the top of the class for being too good?

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Imagine that the "Greek Mélenchon" Alexis Tsipras, took power in Athens. The charismatic leader of the far left Syriza hoisted his party to second place in Sunday's parliamentary election. It may well prevail during the next legislative likely in early June. But Alexis Tsipras advocates stopping the austerity and maintenance in the euro area. Problem: he can not have one without the other.

Immediately canceled the cuts, the International Monetary Fund and the European Union would cut funding to the Greek State. However, it turns through a continuing infusion of tens of billions of euros paid by its partners. Credit Suisse has calculated that 143 billion had been paid from 2010 to today. Athens also expects a further payment of 5.3 billion euros. If the bailout fund approved this assistance, it nevertheless reduces the amount of one billion that has been blocked for a possible payment in June.

Without this money, the Greek state would be bankrupt by the end of June The government could fine delay payment of his bills, he could no longer pay civil servants and pensions, spending a few weeks. The State could not repay such 25 billion of debt held by local banks. Another blow to these institutions, themselves deprived of their infusions so far granted by the European Central Bank (ECB). Failing banks, companies can no longer pay their employees who would join in the street and retired civil servants too dry.  

The return to the drachma

At one point during the summer, to prevent the situation from worsening, the government would be forced to issue its own currency to pay his debts and wages. One way or another. "Greece could opt out of the euro area if it was unable to resume growth by remaining in it, and if severe measures were undermining the commitment to the European idea, or if the populists came to power," summarizes the rating agency Fitch. The risk that such a scenario occurring is difficult to assess. Credit Suisse analysts estimate it at 15%, those of the U.S. bank Citi from 50% to 75%.

The cure would be worse than the disease. "Greece would live a financial collapse and recession far worse than it is now experiencing," warns Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citi. The country's economy would probably collapse in half, according to Stephane Deo, an economist at UBS.

The euro would probably be replaced by a return to the drachma, the former Greek currency. If the government decides to start a drachma equal one euro, this parity would not last. Runaway inflation, massive flight of foreign capital … very quickly, the new currency would not be worth much. Eventually, the Greeks could buy with a dram about half of what they previously available with the euro, said Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis.

Ruin savers

The falling value of the drachma by 50%, the price of goods purchased abroad, so foreign currency, oil to the iPhone, would double. However, Greece is a country that imports more than it exports. Companies would face enormous difficulties with their foreign suppliers. At the same time, investors would be ruined, their euros have been converted into drachmas at the exit of Greece in the euro area. In contrast, debt, starting with the State, would gain: their claims would melt as the drachma collapses.

The crisis is broadcast in parallel in the rest of the euro area. Athens could refuse to honor its debts as planned by its partners. At stake, more than 143 billion euros granted by international institutions since 2010, according to calculations by Credit Suisse. Banks, insurance and other private foreign investors would be affected only to the tune of 36.3 billion euros, according to estimates by UBS.

However, these are not the direct loss of most concern. The greatest risk, but also the greatest unknown, lies in the domino effect caused by the event. "A taboo is broken, the output of a country in the euro area," said Willem Buiter. The extent of the disaster would then depend on the ability of other European states to seal the crisis. There are divergent views. Some, like Fitch, believe that the contagion-proof tools exist, such as financial firewall 500 billion euros. And displayed a strong support to other countries in difficulty, coupled with greater integration of the area, the last calm fears.

More pessimistic, other observers expect a response too little too late in the Member States in case of contagion. As was the case until now, they said.

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"The election worries Greek markets

It is a blow to Angela Merkel. German Chancellor has lost Sunday night for its closest ally to win against its European partners in managing the crisis of the euro. The defeat of Nicolas Sarkozy, she has supported all the way, is also a bit his. However, his political career attests: Merkel is good at adapting to new realities. It's been several weeks since his team is preparing for a possible victory of Francois Hollande. The Socialist no longer afraid to Berlin. His first phone call on Sunday night was to be for the Chancellor.

Francois Hollande was pretty irritated the Germans during his campaign by promising not to ratify the treaty in the state of budgetary discipline. The Socialist candidate would include a component of measures to support growth, including on the funding at European level of environmental or industrial projects. Merkel replied curtly that there would be no renegotiation of the text, regarded in Berlin as the culmination of his vision of a Europe steeped in the "stability culture" Germanic. Before making a small step towards Holland stating that the EU was preparing a "growth agenda" for the top end of June

Holland, who said he wanted to be part of the Franco-German tradition by making his first trip across the Rhine, is expected in Berlin this weekend or early next week, following his inauguration. It is expected to meet informally with the Chancellor of how to amend the treaty. Merkel wants to prevent the initiatives to support growth would delay its ratification. To circumvent the risk of isolation, she has already joined the Italian Mario Monti. And it seeks to gather around their tandem a significant number of twenty-five countries signed the treaty to ratify the text without waiting for France.

Berlin wants to believe qu'Hollande will find a "pragmatic solution", according to a memorandum of discussions between the team of the socialist candidate and German diplomats, quoted by the media across the Rhine. "Holland and his team want to be part of the continuity of the Franco-German working for Europe," said the note. For several weeks, Michel Sapin, author of the economic project of Holland, and Jean-Louis Bianco try to reassure the Chancellor through contacts with his closest advisers. On both sides of the Rhine, we want defuse "hiccups" that perfect storm of the euro, would be immediately punished by the markets.

Of "painful truths"

Merkel's entourage insisted on the red lines of the Chancellor. The introduction of Eurobonds is still a taboo in Berlin. As a stimulus to growth by an extensive program of public spending. Germany believes that its model of structural reforms is the role model for Europe. And she hopes qu'Hollande be satisfied with a symbolic boost to growth. For Berlin, the Socialist candidate's campaign promises are not set in stone. And he would realize that he will announce "painful truths" to the French early in his term. Germany feared above all that the arrival in power of Holland bury any desire for reform in France. And having to wear one at arm's Europe and the single currency. Holland "judge superfluous needed economic reforms, pension and labor market, laments the Bild newspaper in an editorial. The French economy unscrews. If Holland looks away, she will continue to fall. While Germany is alone without strong partner with a big question mark next to the euro. "

Somewhat reassured by his contacts with the Dutch team, led by Berlin is one hope: that economic realities and uncompromising market pressure will convince the French Socialist turning into a Social Democratic German inspired.

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For the first time in three years, the hiring intentions of managers in business are down for the second quarter. According to the barometer established by the Association for the employment of executives (APEC), only two companies provides for recruiting at least a framework by the end of June. Rate down by three points from last year to the same period. The situation also seems particularly bad in the trade, transportation and consulting and business services where the declines, year on year, reaching 4 and 7 points respectively.

Lack of visibility on growth

Worse, it is the general forecast the worst for 18 months, although it remains well above the low reached in the third quarter of 2010 (43%). Another negative point, but not least: APEC has been a fall of 12 points in the proportion of firms indicating that their recruitment of executives are more numerous than last year at the same time, to 29%.

Last factor of concern is the monthly index of dissemination on the Internet offers executives lost 3 points in March from the same month a year earlier. Again, the first since February 2010.

The reason? "Great caution" partly due to the uncertain outcome of the presidential election, the association notes. "The fall was also linked to lack of visibility on future growth in France, says Marie-Francoise Leflon, its president. However it is too early to tell whether this decline will continue, recruiters surveyed being confident on improving the situation of their business in the coming months. "

Photo credits: Azylum

This is an unprecedented project in France by its size: 70 local authorities have plans to issue a loan grouped by 1.2 billion euros in the bond market. One way to overcome the credit crisis. Banks are now more reluctant to lend to municipalities, counties and regions. And the establishment of the new structure replacing bank Dexia takes time. Certainly, the Deposit has released this year a budget of 5 billion credit. But despite this, local officials fear they will not find banks to 17 billion needed to finance their investments. That is why they are turning increasingly to bond markets. Issuers usual, like Paris and the Ile de France, joined newcomers as Marseille. But this system has a limit: only a few very large entities have the ability to raise capital markets individually.

Hence the idea of ​​a pooled loan, which will allow a larger number of communities to access the bond market. Indeed, this kind of initiative is not new. Urban communities (Bordeaux, Lille, Lyon, Strasbourg …), joined last year by the departments, cities and regions, have issued loans grouped from 2004 to 2008 business card. "But the amounts were much lower. This time, seven regions, twenty departments and more than thirty cities and towns are part of the project, "said Olivier Landel, the Chief Executive of the ACUF (Association of urban communities in France). Two options are on the table: raising the funds at once in the fall or make a first installment in late June, then another few months. "According to preliminary estimates, the rate of the bond issue would evolve between 3.8% and 4.4%. It's cheaper than bank credit, "says one to AMGVF (Association of Mayors of major cities in France). Associations of elected officials are meeting Thursday to refine the draft. It is urgent. A study shows that AMGVF mayors of large cities, concerned about the financing, have reduced their investments by 8% in 2012.

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The whole problem is whether the profit warning could be the first of a series in the CAC 40. Companies are affected by the stock market crisis of the summer. Order books deflate. At the same time, companies have made great efforts to optimize their costs. A new lower spending takes time. For their part, financial analysts are slow to revise their forecasts.

The companies involved in these kinds of concerns are primarily industrial and cyclical stocks. Eramet had also warned that its prospects were less favorable in the second half. The work of specialist nickel and manganese drop 57% since January 1 cash advances pay day loan.

Despite a more difficult context, ArcelorMittal has maintained its forecast. But investors are very cautious since the title is down 52% since the beginning of the year.

Financial analysts continue to anticipate an increase of about 6% of profits in 2012 for CAC 40 companies. They may be forced to correct the optimistic estimate.

U.S. companies will give indications

Investors could have their questions answered with the wave of quarterly results expected in the United States. open the show on October 11.The specialist for aluminum had anticipated a sharp rise in net profit in 2011. This optimistic forecast could be questioned. Each variation of 100 dollars per tonne of aluminum has an impact of $ 200 million of annual net income. Now, three months, a tonne of aluminum has declined by more than 300 dollars.

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For over a year since employees bought the complex in 2008 by the American group at Shell are worried about the survival of their institution on the banks of the Etang de Berre, a center of petrochemical refineries with four French.In May, they had hope again, the company announced it was selling its refinery in which "the extent of losses (…) was no longer sustainable." She had mandated Barclays Capital to find buyers. Soon after, the government had instructed the French agency for international investment to assist. But if the AFII continues to seek a candidate, LyondellBasell would have thrown in the towel.

"Berre refinery is old and of modest size with an output of 5 million tonnes against a national average of 7 absolutely free credit score.5 million, says Jean-Louis Schilansky, president of the Ufip. However, gross margin refining fell to 13 euros per tonne, a level close to that of 2009, when the French refineries had recorded nearly $ 1 billion in losses. "

But, said a council employee, the decision to close seems taken since last spring.Otherwise, why ask in June, the commercial court to appoint an ad hoc agent for the Company's petrochemical Berre covering all employees of the site but not the assets and accused of heavy losses, forcing them to recapitalize before end of the year?

General Assembly

Employees do not agree with the diagnosis of their direction. A study by McKinsey, commissioned as part of a right to notify, concluded that "the next five years, the site is profitable as a whole, integrating the refinery."

So they want the company to reconsider its position and keep the refinery or offer to sell the entire site has been designed on a model built around the refinery.The inter-union (CGT, CFDT, CFE-CGC, FOR, CFTC) will hold a general meeting Tuesday at the end of the works council at the entrance of the petrochemical complex, "to decide on a large-scale strike if announcement is confirmed. "

Investors should in all cases be cautious on the Old Continent, especially after the deterioration of the Italian sovereign debt on Tuesday, which must be added the absence of a clear response from the area in the euro area on the Greek crisis. The conference held the day before between the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the heads of mission of the "troika" of the creditors of the country has still not been completed. Only "good progress has been made," the European Commission ruled in a statement. Yet it must release the next tranche of aid and vital in Athens 8 billion euros.The Greek authorities are pressed by their foreign creditors to accelerate the reduction of budgetary expenditures, while the other side, protesters denounced the daily ravages of austerity.

Brazil could help the euro area

In addition, the Greek daily Kathimerini Athens unveiled Tuesday would consider holding a referendum on the continuation of Greece in the euro area to strengthen its legitimacy in its management of the debt crisis. A bill prior to the referendum would be discussed in the coming days, the newspaper said, quoting unspecified sources. Athens, however, denied such a referendum.

While the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) had indicated last week the possibility of supporting the euro area by increasing their holdings of bonds, the President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, confirmed this position at Barack Obama on Wednesday at a meeting in New York.

On the macroeconomic front, the United States, home resales for the month of August are expected in 16 hours as the weekly inventory of crude oil at 16.30.

In Britain, the public finance figures for August are expected.

In Italy, the current account balance for the month of July will be published.

In Japan, foreign trade figures for August will also be unveiled.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remained stable against the dollar Wednesday after Greece has reported "satisfactory progress" with the troika of creditors, but the markets remained nervous awaiting the announcements of the Fed . Around 8 am, the European currency was worth 1.3703 dollars against 1.3702 dollars the night before.

As for oil, it was down Wednesday morning in a market desperate to face the crisis of debt in the euro area, pending a decision by the Fed to promote economic recovery of the largest consumer of crude in the world.In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for October delivery gave up 53 cents to 86.38 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery lost 37 cents to 110.17 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• Banking

After the degradation of Italian sovereign debt, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas, which are exposed, will still be observed.

Attention will also Dexia, which, in a confidential document revealed by Libération, said that five thousand five hundred local authorities and public institutions have signed French toxic loans.

• Bouygues

The group filed with the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) the prospectus of the takeover of shares of € 1.25 billion announced on August 31, at 30 euros per share.

• Saffron

The aerospace equipment mandated banks Mediobanca and UBS to bid for the Italian manufacturer of aircraft engines Avio, reports the newspaper front page.

• JCDecaux

According to Les Echos, the group won an exclusive contract advertising on two subway lines in Chongqing in China for a period of 15 years, but did not disclose financial details.

• Le Noble Age

The company announced in a press up all its results in the 1st half (34% to 3.68 million euros for the net) and confirmed the increase in its forecast of EBITDAR margin ( Operating income before depreciation, amortization and rent) of EBITDAR margin at cruising speed greater than 27% by year end.