Stock Exchange: experts anticipate an increase of 10% in 2010
January 4, 2010
They want to believe. Most experts are optimistic about the stock market outlook for the year 2010. And expect earnings of 10 to 15% for the shares despite the stock rally of recent weeks of 2009. The fifteen institutions surveyed by Le Figaro is an average CAC 40 around 4 300 points. A performance that would remain below that of 2009, but that would make 2010 a good year.
One would have thought she needed it. Indeed, investors have been burned. The actions have disappointed the last ten years. The CAC 40 fell from 25 to 30% over this period. If the shares are now the preferred investment management companies, who they believe should bring back the most is also because the prospects of investment rate (bonds, cash) are uncertain.The bonds are now regarded with particular suspicion because of the state debt and low interest rates.
This year, experts rely on two engines to advance equity markets. The first is the rise of corporate profits. "In the scenario of a strong and sustainable growth, companies should see their results improve significantly," said Mathieu Grou?s, managing partner, responsible for strategy and asset allocation at Lazard Fr?res Gestion , one of the few that provided by a CPA in January 2009 at around 4 000 to the end of the year. In Kepler, Francois Mallet not table a 13% increase in profits. A double digit growth which ranks in the clan yet pessimists. Indeed, many expect more and expect 20% or 25% increase in results.Expectations are strong vis-?-vis companies and disappointment may be severely punished. For it is here that the economic recovery. "Growth in 2010 will depend largely on the companies that conducted in 2009 to massive reductions in their stocks, their staff and their investments," says Richard Urwin, the chief investment officer of BlackRock, which provides "a slight increase investments this year.
Other possible engine for the stock market: capital ready to invest. Many investors, including institutional, are in fact much of monetary investments in their portfolios. The "munitions" does not relate anything, they will reinvest elsewhere. And, again, assets whose prospects are good are not so many. This flow potential is another factor supporting the market earlier this year.Especially since the stock returns in excess of 3% are almost at par with those of bonds.
Sawtooth
In exchange, this year should still be "tactical." He will learn forward, backward because experts expect ups and downs … "The economic recovery remains fragile, any sustained recovery has never rested solely on lower interest rates and rising deficits budget, "said Richard Urwin. This suggests a certain nervousness of the markets deal with risk (see also below).
Investors should therefore have the nerves well hung. "In an economic and financial improved but still fragile, the watchword will be flexibility in portfolio management. At the discretion of the phases of hopes and fears, shares will change sawtooth at least during the first half.Mobility will also be required in terms of choice and value sectors, between defensive and cyclical, "said Yves Maillot at Robeco Gestion. The document begins the year with disparate levels of recovery. "The defensive stocks are cheap. We must focus on quality companies with good visibility which is found mainly in three sectors, health, telecommunications and distribution, "advises Jean-Marie Mercadal, Director General of OFI Asset Management.
ALSO READ
"Advice to build its portfolio in 2010
Sorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.