Imagine that the "Greek Mélenchon" Alexis Tsipras, took power in Athens. The charismatic leader of the far left Syriza hoisted his party to second place in Sunday's parliamentary election. It may well prevail during the next legislative likely in early June. But Alexis Tsipras advocates stopping the austerity and maintenance in the euro area. Problem: he can not have one without the other.

Immediately canceled the cuts, the International Monetary Fund and the European Union would cut funding to the Greek State. However, it turns through a continuing infusion of tens of billions of euros paid by its partners. Credit Suisse has calculated that 143 billion had been paid from 2010 to today. Athens also expects a further payment of 5.3 billion euros. If the bailout fund approved this assistance, it nevertheless reduces the amount of one billion that has been blocked for a possible payment in June.

Without this money, the Greek state would be bankrupt by the end of June The government could fine delay payment of his bills, he could no longer pay civil servants and pensions, spending a few weeks. The State could not repay such 25 billion of debt held by local banks. Another blow to these institutions, themselves deprived of their infusions so far granted by the European Central Bank (ECB). Failing banks, companies can no longer pay their employees who would join in the street and retired civil servants too dry.  

The return to the drachma

At one point during the summer, to prevent the situation from worsening, the government would be forced to issue its own currency to pay his debts and wages. One way or another. "Greece could opt out of the euro area if it was unable to resume growth by remaining in it, and if severe measures were undermining the commitment to the European idea, or if the populists came to power," summarizes the rating agency Fitch. The risk that such a scenario occurring is difficult to assess. Credit Suisse analysts estimate it at 15%, those of the U.S. bank Citi from 50% to 75%.

The cure would be worse than the disease. "Greece would live a financial collapse and recession far worse than it is now experiencing," warns Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citi. The country's economy would probably collapse in half, according to Stephane Deo, an economist at UBS.

The euro would probably be replaced by a return to the drachma, the former Greek currency. If the government decides to start a drachma equal one euro, this parity would not last. Runaway inflation, massive flight of foreign capital … very quickly, the new currency would not be worth much. Eventually, the Greeks could buy with a dram about half of what they previously available with the euro, said Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis.

Ruin savers

The falling value of the drachma by 50%, the price of goods purchased abroad, so foreign currency, oil to the iPhone, would double. However, Greece is a country that imports more than it exports. Companies would face enormous difficulties with their foreign suppliers. At the same time, investors would be ruined, their euros have been converted into drachmas at the exit of Greece in the euro area. In contrast, debt, starting with the State, would gain: their claims would melt as the drachma collapses.

The crisis is broadcast in parallel in the rest of the euro area. Athens could refuse to honor its debts as planned by its partners. At stake, more than 143 billion euros granted by international institutions since 2010, according to calculations by Credit Suisse. Banks, insurance and other private foreign investors would be affected only to the tune of 36.3 billion euros, according to estimates by UBS.

However, these are not the direct loss of most concern. The greatest risk, but also the greatest unknown, lies in the domino effect caused by the event. "A taboo is broken, the output of a country in the euro area," said Willem Buiter. The extent of the disaster would then depend on the ability of other European states to seal the crisis. There are divergent views. Some, like Fitch, believe that the contagion-proof tools exist, such as financial firewall 500 billion euros. And displayed a strong support to other countries in difficulty, coupled with greater integration of the area, the last calm fears.

More pessimistic, other observers expect a response too little too late in the Member States in case of contagion. As was the case until now, they said.

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One hundred billion a year. The evaluation by the European Commission of savings possible through new technologies during the bidding for public procurement in Europe is surprisingly important. These sums, which may feed into major investments, according to Brussels are at hand as the "all-mail" will be the rule in mid-2016 during the procurement in all countries of the European Union. It will be a challenge: currently only 5 to 10% of procedures for awarding public contracts in the EU are conducted electronically.

"This estimate of 100 billion euros based on a conservative estimate, says an expert from the Commission. It is based on a 5% decrease in the cost of the project, which is a minimum. The total amount of bids that meet the business is very important since it represents 20% of European GDP. "Brussels estimated the total value of public procurement to 2000 billion per year.

Brussels, referring to a Dutch study, estimated at 8,500 euros on average lower technical costs (postage, etc..) Achievable at each tender faxless payday advance. Moreover, the use of e-procurement methods practiced by large companies for a dozen years for their supplies, would actually put pressure on prices up to 20%.

The example of South Korea

Companies, especially SMEs, more aware of the auction would be held and many more to participate and, hence, the estimate would be dragged down. "An extrapolation made from several concrete examples of building hospitals in Portugal found that the gains could reach up to 18%, we preferred to retain more modest ambitions," says one in Brussels.

The Commission itself will only use new technologies in mid-2015, a year before the deadline of mid-2016 imposed on Member States as part of the modernization of European directives of 2011 on Public Procurement. In a communication to the European Parliament especially in April, the Commission highlighted the example of South Korea, a pioneer in this field. Using a platform of public procurement, saving this country since 2007 some 4.5 billion per year (8% of total procurement).

The Lakers star ball changes. After the pumpkin orange basketball, he moved to the little white ball in baseball. Playmaker of the "Dream Team" of the Barcelona Olympics in 1992, but the Los Angeles Lakers is the large-figurehead of a consortium that will spend the equivalent of 1.6 billion euro to regain bankrupt club of Los Angeles Dodgers. This colossal sum excludes the famous "Dodger Stadium" for which the new team of "Magic" Johnson will pay 150 million dollars more. A misery.

The fate of the Dodgers was sealed last summer, when the league baseball has refused to accept the increase in TV rights which would have reached three billion dollars between the Fox and the California Club in Los Angeles. In fact, one of the leaders League Baseball feared that this small fortune to go replenish the accounts of the controversial businessman, Frank McCourt, owner of the Dodgers so far faxless cash advance. The amount proposed by the band Jordan is the highest ever paid for the acquisition of a "franchise".

Specificity of the North American professional sports, a franchise is a team that can be sold and "moved" from one city to another. However Magic Johnson will not be President. This position will be assigned to Stan Kasten, who led the franchise of the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals. The Californian giant known for his business acumen comes again at the right time: the Dodgers show a good record with 16 wins sport for seven defeats. This is not the first time a basketball player is interested in baseball. The great Michael Jordan had tried-sporting – this discipline in a minor league. The star of the Chicago Bulls was also a teammate of Magic Johnson in the "Dream Team" Olympic. The fine line between the two sports.

Terrestrial digital radio (DAB) will she set up in 2012? The Higher Audiovisual Council (CSA) and wants just updated the call for tenders launched in March 2008 to Paris, Nice and Marseille. A call to cover twenty new cities to follow. The regulator does and apply the law of 5 March 2007 on the modernization of audiovisual broadcasting, said Rachid Arhab, advisor to the CSA in charge of the RNT.

But his initiative has provoked outrage from the Bureau of Radio, bringing together networks RTL, NRJ Group, Lagardère Active and NextRadioTV. "The CSA seeks the forced passage and launches an unfunded project between the two rounds of the presidential election!" Railed this association. Candidates in 2008 and for certain selected by the CSA at the time, these four private groups say they are now "reserved" on the launch of the RNT. "We are not against digital radio. But we want to know how many radios there will be local, how many there will be national and what is the vision of CSA in the long run? "Explains Michel Cacouault, President of the Office of the radio. Information that would be necessary to establish private radios for a business plan over the long term. In practice, they are afraid of having to finance, long, double analogue and digital, of many issuers, while the French are not yet equipped with suitable receivers.

"We try to corner us on the question of the economic model. But it is to find the radios, not the CSA, "retorts Rashid Arhab. Economic needs will also depend on the speed at which digital radio is launched. For this, the new call for applications imposes minimum thresholds of coverage to be achieved in five years. According to Rachid Arhab, they are "significant, without strangling operators." Another variable that escapes the CSA: consumer expectations. "Let the listener and the market decide how TNR works," says the counselor, who works at the revival of the issue since the fall.

Support independent

His efforts have joined efforts for six months by the Union Interprofessional Independent Radio and Television (Sirti). The latter went so far as to claim before the State Council the allocation of broadcasting licenses to selected candidates in 2008. For its members, as for-profit radio stations, the TNR is a promise of development. The Sirti and SNRL, associations representing the stations, therefore support the decision of the CSA.

The latter was given until May 31 for candidates to file for new records or update their records to a digital radio frequency. "Otherwise, the candidate is now considered a candidate as part of its original case," defined in Article 2 of the new call for applications. At least to withdraw their cases filed in 2008, the Bureau of Radio and remain candidates for RNT.

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Ease the cost of a property purchase by cutting transfer taxes – that is to say, much of the Notary fees – the idea has appeal to future home buyers. All the charges amount to about 7% of the asset price, a substantial sum when money is tight. The proposal of Nicolas Sarkozy, candidate to succeed him in the presidential election, while interesting for buyers, however, could be very costly to local governments.

Almost 10 billion euros per year

Tax collectors, the Notaries pay back because the majority of the charges they levy for counties and municipalities. "Whenever there is change of ownership of a property, solicitors receive 5.09% of the price in respect of registration fees. Beneficiaries are 3.80% for the department and the municipality where the property is located to 1.20%, "says Benoit Renaud, president of the Council of Notaries (CSN). The remainder is not covered by the proposal of Nicolas Sarkozy, returned to the notary.

The latest figures available from the Department of the Interior, these taxes generated 7.1 billion euros in 2010 to the departments. That of Paris, for example, received more than 668.5 million euros thanks to these taxes, the Alpes-Maritimes nearly 290 million euros, the Rhone € 227.5 million. As a department of Lozere, where the pace of transactions is much lower still reached 3.6 million of these transfer taxes. Municipalities have their side earned 2.2 billion euros. For 2011, revenues for the departments is estimated at 8.6 billion euros and 2.5 billion euros to the communes. "These amounts are far from harmless, some budgets of departments and municipalities depend on it. In 2008, with the crisis and the sharp slowdown in sales, there were large budget cuts, "says the president of the CSN.

Differential rates

In February 2011, solicitors had participated in a discussion on this subject at the time of manufacture of the supplementary budget. "We said that at present, taxes and holding back the acquisition we had proposed to make the transfer tax deductible from income taxes for 5 years. There would be no impact to the local community, "said Benoit Renaud. Alternatively, notaries also offer differentiated sales to private commercial sales professionals who can deduct them transfer taxes. "There are twenty years we had different rates: 13 to 18% for commercial property and 7% for homes. Today everyone is 5% that is not necessarily a good idea. It would for example reduce the cost of 5 to 3% for individuals and grow to 8% for commercial buildings, "says the president of the CSN. Options, for now, not selected.

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Two types of life insurance contracts. The life insurance policy and monosupport linked life insurance contract.

The life insurance policy monosupport is backed by one or more funds in Euros. These are financial products such as government bonds or Treasury bills. Also, the life insurance contract does monosupport in principle no risk: investments are safe and guaranteed capital.

The linked life insurance contract is backed by one or more funds in Euros as well as units of account. These are financial products such as shares in property companies or units or shares of collective investment in transferable securities (mutual fund units). Also, the linked life insurance policy may pose risks vary depending on the arbitrage between the different units of account.

Monosupport life insurance: the risk of bankruptcy of the insurer

Regarding the life insurance contract monosupport, the main risk is the failure of the insurer. Although this risk of failure is extremely rare, the European sovereign debt crisis helps to strengthen it. While some European countries were to fail and therefore not to honor their commitments vis-à-vis their creditors, it could affect insurers exposed to the debt of these countries.

However, if the insurer were to fail, the capital is partially protected by a guarantee fund which allows a maximum coverage of € 70,000 per insured. Regarding risks, it is necessary to clearly identify the insurer's life insurance policy that you subscribed. Indeed, it may be different from the distributor.

Linked life insurance: market fluctuations

The linked life insurance contract is exposed to the risk that the life insurance contract monosupport but also a risk associated with units of account. Indeed, the value of these markets may vary in large proportions. There is therefore no guarantee for the investment.

Limit the risks to life insurance

To limit the risks of life insurance, it is available for purchase life insurance policies from different insurers. Thus, in case of bankruptcy of an insurer, your investments are only partially affected. The guarantee ceiling of € 70,000 provided for contracts of life insurance is per insured and all contracts. Multiply insurers therefore does not increase the overall ceiling of guarantee.

Contractual mechanisms also exist to limit losses on contracts multichannel. This is particularly the case for the stop-loss, from a certain level of loss, to transfer the capital to support less risky.

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2 trillion dollars, 1.5 trillion euros. This is the amount of the invoice World crude this year, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency, if oil prices remain at their summits in the coming months. Warming relative to GDP, oil purchases could represent 3.4% against 3.1% in 2011.

In the EU alone, the cost would be $ 500 billion, $ 426 billion for the United States and 250 billion for China. The weakness of the euro against the dollar increases because the oil bill, dollar denominated, for Europe. From $ 1.49 last May, the European currency is now worth $ 1.33.

Last year, with a barrel to $ 125 on average $ 107 in London and New York, purchases of oil in the world have cost 1.8 trillion. In 2008, when the barrel reached a historical peak of 147 dollars, the bill had risen to 1.7 trillion.

The invoice record concerned the president of the U.S. central bank, Ben Bernanke. He said yesterday in a television interview to ABC News, that the surge in gasoline prices, largely due to soaring oil prices, was a "major problem" in the United States, while affirming she did not put "at risk the economic recovery" of the country. According to the American Association of motorists AAA, the average price of regular gasoline at the pump in the U.S. yesterday showed an increase of 5.7% on month and 8.8% year on year. In France, the price of fuel will record after record and a liter of unleaded 95 has exceeded the 2 euros in Paris.

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No wonder that the backup industry has become an issue in the presidential Since 2001, the manufacturing sector has lost over 800,000 jobs in France. Each week brings a lot of sites in need. After the textile factory Lejaby and module manufacturer Photowatt, it is the turn of the steel plant of ArcelorMittal Florange in Lorraine, put to sleep by the judgment of its two blast furnaces, to generate the anxiety … and the attention of politicians.

Francois Hollande visited Florange Friday. There promised legislation that would prevent a company wanting to emerge from a French site to block a takeover by a buyer. Filed Monday in Parliament, this bill has no chance of being passed before the elections. But its content must be dated. In detail, the text is not so coercive as that. "If there is no buyer, we will force the company not wanting to close the plant to find one," said Alain Rousset, President of PS Aquitaine and responsible for industrial matters within the Holland team.

Defensive tool

"By cons, if buyers are presented, the company can no longer refuse to cede the factory, as sometimes happens now. This is the commercial court which will then choose the buyer, "added the official, who sees the device as a defensive tool against abusive practices by companies not wanting to deliver profitable customers or technology to a potential buyer competing .

On the other side of the political spectrum, we do not share this vision. "The logic of this bill is a logical administered economy that always leads to impoverishment," Francois Fillon on Monday denounced the Salon de l'Agriculture. RTL, Nicolas Sarkozy said he preferred to act through the Strategic Investment Fund (ISF), the armed wing of the State acquires a stake in companies. "It makes sense, is to invest," said the president-nominee. Nevertheless, in the case of ArcelorMittal, the use ISP has nothing obvious, the group being held to 40.8% by the Mittal family. Similarly, the government can push, as reaffirmed by Nicolas Sarkozy, the direction to invest in the blast furnace restarts in the second half. But this is ArcelorMittal, as a private company, which will decide whether to invest, based on economic criteria.

The state could in fact intervene through Ulcos European project, focused on CO2 reductions. Through this project, a new blast furnace could be built to high performance Florange. Last autumn, the French government is committed to provide 150 million euros to this program. Commitment that Nicolas Sarkozy confirmed on RTL. Still, it must also get the green light from Brussels. The European Commission must give its opinion in October 2012. Francois Hollande had gone to discuss the subject in Brussels last November. Nicolas Sarkozy has promised to speak at the European summit later this week. But again, the project will not succeed if it is not economically viable

.

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It was two years ago: Didier Migaud took the head of the ECA. To succeed Philippe Seguin, Nicolas Sarkozy had chosen to appeal to an elected Socialist President of the Finance Committee in the Assembly. This appointment, under the sign of political openness, is one of the many developments that have marked the Court in recent years. Developments that have strengthened its role. The Court of Auditors is not content to publish its annual report in February, far from it!

Thus, since 2008, the magistrates of the Rue Cambon – named by reference to the Paris address of the Court – control the accounts of the Elysee. Jean-Pierre Bel, the President PS Senate, has asked that the same is true for those in the Senate. As for the accounts of the state (ministries and parastatals) and the general scheme of Social Security, they are "certified" by the Court of Auditors since 2006, which ensures reliability.

Another innovation of the last ten years: the increased collaboration with the Parliament, which may apply to the Court of audit reports on specific topics. In 2011, the report pointing to the overhead of merging the two directions of taxes at Bercy has been commissioned by the Senate Finance Committee. The Court of course retains the right to set its own agenda. It was she who chose for example to control the works of the RATP.

Assessing the economic policies

Since 2008, the magistrates of the Rue Cambon must also evaluate public policies. A new mission that leads them to act outside of the public sphere. "For the assessment of biofuels policy, we asked private companies, including Total, PSA, Renault, etc.. Our contacts have proved available, so that legally, nor was it required to answer our questions, "Christian witness Descheemaeker, president of the Seventh Chamber (specializing in transport, environment, agriculture), and Arnold Migus and Paul-Henri Ravier, Senior Councillors.

Adversarial proceedings

Also in evaluation, the Court can work with Parliament. This was the case on the report on accommodation for homeless people. "We attended the hearings conducted by the members and we sometimes went into the field with them," says Anne Froment-Meurice, president of the Fifth Chamber (specializing in employment, excluding the city), Michel de Virville, Senior Member, and Marie-Christine Butel, rapporteur.

Each time, whether measurement or control, the Court respects adversarial proceedings. Controlled organizations have a right of reply that is built into the reports. Furthermore, the authors of the reports have their work checked by other members of the Court, at hearings in private. "We are on the grill for half a day. But it is very informative, "says Marie-Christine Butel, rapporteur. This is especially a more reliable, which explains the reputation of this institution created in 1807.

FOUR FUNCTIONS IN THE STATE:

r the public sphere. The Court of Auditors checks the state and its satellites, Social Security, public enterprises and organizations using public donations. The regime of the entertainment or the Bank of France were pinned in its latest annual report. The court also publishes thematic reports during the year, like the Franco-German taxation. It enlightens the public debate by giving their views regularly on the state of French public finances. The regional audit control, they, the management of local authorities.

Each year, the Court of Auditors certify that the accounts of the state and the general scheme of Social Security are "regular, honest and fairly." In short, it ensures that the methodology makes these reliable accounts. France is, with the United Kingdom and the United States, one of the few countries where an independent authority certifies the accounts of the state.

The Court of Auditors and regional chambers judge public accountants for their sins. They can condemn them to fines or impose Debets, that is to say force them to repay the expense paid irregularly or not the recipe recovered by negligence.

The Court of Auditors assesses whether a given public policy – eg biofuels policy or the accommodation of homeless people – is achieving its objectives. It is then brought to question government but also private companies.

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Skills transfer will take place earlier than expected at the head of Canal +. By the beginning of 2013, Rodolphe Belmer, now deputy director general in charge of the publishing division, will replace Mr. Meheut operational as president of Canal +. According latribune.fr, the television group would prepare the encrypted handover, while the current president's mandate runs until 31 December 2014. This plan would have been endorsed by Jean-Rene Fourtou, almighty man of Vivendi, parent company of Canal +.

Bertrand Meheut, who took the head of Canal + in complete disarray in 2003, has restated the financial statements and the group's image in recent years. If it passes control to Rodolphe Belmer, who seconds since 2003, Bertrand Meheut keep one foot in the house as President nonoperational. An unusual transaction in the media world where the big bosses tend to devour their children to organize their succession.

In fact, Rodolphe Belmer is already one that drives the progress of Canal + to define whether the strategy or make appointments. He is the architect of the historic change that the group is trying to achieve by establishing a presence in the market for free TV. Against the initial notice of Mr. Meheut, Canal + has led to develop the draft Canal20 free channel. Then in the summer of 2011, he contributed to the redemption of DTT channels free of Bolloré, Direct 8 Direct Star, proving its ability to convince its president.

Ramp-up

This strategy is more widely in the conviction of Rodolphe Belmer that the future of television will belong to those capable of building strong and clean content cash till payday. They must guarantee the autonomy and the attractiveness of the audiovisual group.

Rodolphe Belmer also imposed the idea that in matters of pay, it could not be any offers low cost. A position which today is reflected in the decision to close the Canal + TPS Star channel on the DTT present and whose financial losses amounting to millions of euros.

But the rise of those who arrived as number two of the group in 2003, at the height of the storm, was also illustrated by the process of appointments within the group during the summer. Wishing to renew and rejuvenate frames, Rodolphe Belmer organized the transition i-TV, the news channel group with the appointment to head one of his relatives, Cécilia Ragueneau. It also decided the appointment of Peter Fraidenraich, former head of i-TV, at the head of sports rights acquisitions.

Finally, there is barely a fortnight, Rodolphe Belmer has redesigned the organization of the group by naming the head of a center of free TV Aprikian Ara, and poaching of BETC Euro RSCG Raphaël de Andreis, now supports of pay-TV operations.

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